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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.

Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new initiative from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, undoubtedly, persist.

Political Considerations

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains highly assured in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its favour.

Present Conditions

Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: political desires to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a much faster pace. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.