🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Institutions Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What haunts everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.

"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be valid points on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."

Request for Broader Dialogue

Westminster should join the discussion, urged the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."